The Green Leap Forward 绿跃进

Updated Sep 30:  Reactions from U.S. legislators and Chinese translation of main blog piece.

President Hu Jintao (pictured right) of China announced that China will build on existing domestic climate change policies as embodied in its National Climate Change Programme and current Five Year Plan to step up its efforts on energy efficiency, development of low-carbon energy such as renewables and nuclear, and increase of forestry cover. [For a transcript of President Hu's speech, click here]

Most noteworthy was president Hu’s introduction of a new goal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product from 2005 levels by 2020 by a “notable margin.” No specific numbers were provided, but this should not be surprising as such a far-reaching national policy must undergo various necessary legislative steps before it can become domestically binding. However, China’s willingness to translate its existing domestic energy conservation goals, often discussed in terms of amount of energy consumed, into a metric that is consistent with the language of international climate policy, i.e. carbon emissions, is the clearest signal yet that China is willing to take on responsibilities that are commensurate with its resources and global emissions impact.

This policy has at least three important implications. First, it would undoubtedly set China on a path to slow down its carbon emissions growth. How quickly such a deceleration leads to a peaking of China’s total emissions depends on the specific carbon intensity targets, but senior Chinese officials have recently given public assurance of China’s desire to peak its emissions “as early as possible.”

Second, a shift of focus from energy intensity to carbon intensity will help accelerate China’s transition to a low-carbon economy. The current energy intensity standard does not distinguish between energy derived from high-carbon fossil fuels and low-carbon renewables or nuclear. By framing China’s efficiency goals in terms of carbon emissions, low-carbon sources of energy will be favoured. A carbon intensity policy would thus not only encourage more efficient use of fossil fuels, as the current energy intensity goal does, but also amplify China’s already ambitious targets on renewable energy deployment.

Third, the policy implicitly commits China to measure, report and verify (MRV) carbon emissions on an ongoing basis. It remains to be seen whether this process will meet the standards transparency that the international community seeks. But contrary to popular wisdom, fairly sophisticated mechanisms for MRV already exist for many of China’s major energy and environmental policies, as a recent study from the World Resources Institute reveals.

The significance of president Hu’s announcements are best understood in the context of other very recent Chinese policy developments. In August, China’s State Council, led by premier Wen Jiabao, set the objective of incorporating climate change considerations into the medium- and long-term development strategies and plans of the Chinese government at every level. Later the same month, the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, essentially the inner circle of China’s main legislative body, adopted a resolution on climate change action that explicitly calls for the strengthening of domestic climate legislation while giving assurance that it will be a constructive player in the international climate process.

Taken together, China is sending a strong message that it is serious about tackling climate change and is shaping a comprehensive approach that begins to meet the expectations that the international community has of China. This should serve not only as an indication to the developed countries of China’s good faith on climate action, but also as a catalyst to other developing countries to formulate their own robust low-carbon strategies.

(This piece was originally published at China Dialogue)

Post-script:  The carbon intensity target was huge step forward, but did anyone catch the apparent back-track on the 2020 renewables target????    This is what President Hu said:

…we will vigorously develop renewable energy and nuclear energy. We will endeavour to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020.

So now he’s lumping nuclear with renewables, and turning what used to be the renewable energy target of 15% of primary energy consumption by 2020, to a low-carbon standard?  This would certainly make the 15% easier to meet, what with China’s aggressive plans to increase nuke capacity ten-fold by 2020, and suggest it would now need less new renewables-based electricity to meet this 15% standard than originally thought.  My genuine hope is that this was a case of President Hu’s speechwriters being a little loose with their terminology rather than a signal of a substantive policy change.  Stay tuned for updates.

Alos, courtesy of EE News (subscription required), here are some reactions to President Hu’s speech by U.S. legislators:

Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) said he had not yet seen the details. “But that’s a step in the right direction,” he said. “Clearly, the major economies are going to need to do this in concert. And it’ll be difficult for us to act unless the Chinese and the Indians are willing to make commitments that will actually solve this problem. So it’s a good sign. I’ll be interested to know the magnitude of it and whether it suggests further progress or whether it’s just symbolic.”

Kit Bond (R-MO)
“I want to see what the details are. It’s a target. Is it enforceable? These are ministers, vice ministers and the commerce and environmental protection agency. They said they’re not going to do anything that’s going to stifle the growth of the economy — that they need to put all the people back to work.”

Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
“The more that other countries pledge to cut their carbon and to protect their own people from pollution, it helps us greatly.”

Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
That’s encouraging. That will help us make decisions on our emission problems.”

Ted Kaufman (D-DE)
Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.), a member of Kerry’s Foreign Relations Committee, said China’s decision was a clear signal to U.S. businesses. “The difference here is, they’ve figured out it’s in their economic interest to be involved in this,” Kaufman said. “This is one pledge that they’re going to deliver on.”

John Kerry (D-MA)
“I think anything China does, if it’s constructive and fixed and measurable, and ascertainable, it’ll be very helpful, absolutely.”

John McCain (R-AR)
On China: “We’ll see the details. They’ve made similar commitments in the past but haven’t kept them.”

Chinese version of original China Dialogue piece (without the post-script), courtesy of China Dialogue staff:

中国国家主席胡锦涛宣布，中国将在现行国内气候变化政策的基础上，进一步履行《应对气候变化国家方案》及现阶段的五年计划。其中包括加强能源使用效率，促进含可再生能源及核能在内的低碳能源的发展，以及提高森林覆盖率。

最引人注意的当属胡锦涛主席提出的新目标，中国将争取到2020年每单位国内生产总值的二氧化碳排放，比2005年有“显着下降”。尽管没有提到具体的数 据， 但我们理解一项如此深远的国家政策，无疑必须经过一系列繁复的立法程序才能在全国普遍推行。不过这表示中国愿意依据国际气候政策通用的测量方式来解释该国 现行的能源节省目标，也就是通常我们所说的能源消耗总量。承诺减排就充分说明中国愿意承担与其资源和影响力相符的义务。

这一政策至少包含三个重要意义。首先，中国肯定将减缓二氧化碳排放的增长。减排速度取决于具体的碳排放强度目标，也将决定中国何时达到碳排放总量的峰值。不过中国官方高级官员最近向公众承诺，中国希望尽早达到排放峰值。

其次，从能源强度转向碳排放强度，这一重心的转移将加速中国低碳经济的发展。目前，中国的能源强度标准还未对碳化石燃料的高碳消耗和可再生能源或核能的低 碳消耗做出区分。通过制定碳排放的效能目标，低碳能源显然将更受青睐。鉴于目前能源强度目标的要求，碳排放强度政策不仅将促进化石燃料的使用效率，也进一 步推动了中国发展可再生能源。

第三，该政策暗示性的承诺中国将长期坚持碳排放可测量、可报告及可查证机制（MRV机制）。这一表态是否符合国际社会所期待的透明度还有待观察。但与我们 过往认知不同的是，根据世界资源研究所最近的一份报告显示，中国主要的能源和环境政策中已经涉及相当成熟的MRV机制。

把胡锦涛主席的讲话和中国最近其他政策的动态联系起来看，我们能发现更多问题。今年8月,中国国务院总理温家宝将气候变化问题纳入中国政府各项中、长期发展战略的考量范围。8月底，全国人民代表大会常务委员会（中国最高国家权力机关的内部核心）审议通过了一项应对气候变化的策略，进一步明确并巩固国内对气候问题的相关立法，同时确保了其在国际气候谈判进程道路上发挥的建设性作用。

综合来看, 这是中国向世界发送的强烈信号——中国将认真严肃地对待气候变化，并正努力探讨更全面的措施，以满足国际社会对中国的期许。 这不仅是中国向发达国家展现的对抗气候变化的诚意之举，也将势必推动其他发展中国家制定符合自身行之有效的低碳战略。

September 25th, 2009 | Tags: carbon intensity, China, climate change, energy, Hu Jintao, nuclear, renewable energy | Category: climate change, government | Subscribe to comments | Leave a comment | Trackback URL